Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitoria to win ✗43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.12
Confiança vs Vitoria preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Nordeste sees Confiança take on Vitoria on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Confiança's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Gremio 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitoria's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Flamengo 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Confiança and 1.6 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Confiança 1–1 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Confiança33%fair 3.03 · @3.25
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.88
Vitoria43%fair 2.31 · @2.25
2.89Expected goals
1.33Confiança xG
1.56Vitoria xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Confiança 1.3 – 1.6 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria to win✗
43%
2.31
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria / FT Vitoria✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.12
–
Form
Confiança – last 6
LWWLWL
21 Apr
@ Gremio
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ AO Itabaiana
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Fluminense PI
2–0
W
26 Mar
@ Sousa
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Tombense
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs AO Itabaiana
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
LDWWDL
23 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Piauí
3–1
W
8 Apr
vs Juazeirense
4–1
W
5 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Confiança and Vitoria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Confiança vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Confiança have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitoria 43%.
How many goals will there be in Confiança vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Confiança vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Confiança 1–1 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Confiança vs Vitoria?
Confiança vs Vitoria (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil
Retrô2
America-RN1
Piauí1
AO Itabaiana1
Maranhão1
Ceara3
Juazeirense1
ASA1
Jacuipense0
Imperatriz1
Fortaleza EC2
Sport Recife0
CRB3
Sousa0
Botafogo PB1
Fluminense PI1