Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.44Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.90 – our chance 58% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +70%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓58% · @2.90
Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw ✓79% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✓37% · fair 2.72
Northern Ireland vs Hungary preview and prediction
The match
Hungary travel to Puskás Aréna in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 28 September (19:45 WAT) to face Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland are 1st with 8 points from 4 games, while Hungary sit 2nd on 7 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Northern Ireland's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Georgia 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hungary's last 4: LWWD Most recently they lost to Ukraine 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.5 for Northern Ireland and 0.5 for Hungary. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Safer route: Northern Ireland or draw (79%) at 1.44.
Both teams to score: no (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Draw at 2.90 – 58% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Northern Ireland or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Northern Ireland21%fair 4.82 · @2.62
Draw58%fair 1.71 · @2.90
Hungary21%fair 4.82 · @2.62
1.00Expected goals
0.50Northern Ireland xG
0.50Hungary xG
42%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
1–018%
0–118%
1–19%
2–05%
0–25%
From our goals model: Northern Ireland 0.5 – 0.5 Hungary expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
58%
1.71
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Northern Ireland or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✓
37%
2.72
–
Form
Northern Ireland – last 5
WLWDL
25 Sep
@ Georgia
1–0
W
8 Jun
@ France
1–3
L
4 Jun
vs Guinea
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Wales
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Italy
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Hungary – last 4
LWWD
25 Sep
vs Ukraine
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Kazakhstan
3–1
W
5 Jun
vs Finland
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Greece
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Northern Ireland and Hungary.
What is the prediction for Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
On our numbers Northern Ireland have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Hungary 21%.
How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
Our predicted score is Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
Northern Ireland vs Hungary (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Puskás Aréna.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Armenia2
Montenegro3
Latvia0
Cyprus0
Belgium0
France1
Türkiye1
Italy4
Sweden3
Poland1
Romania2
Bosnia & Herzegovina4