Georgia vs Ukraine prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ukraine to win @ 2.62 – our chance 46% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Georgia 0.4 – 0.6 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ukraine shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 31% for Georgia.
Georgia have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches (2W 2D 1L), scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 per game. Ukraine have 9 points from their last 4 (3W 0D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Ukraine come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.0 goals (0.4 for Georgia, 0.6 for Ukraine). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (37%), 0–1 (23%), 1–0 (14%).
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is better than our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Ukraine to win at 2.62 is our value angle (46% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ukraine to win ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 98% | 1.02 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✓ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 23% | 4.42 | – |
Form
Georgia – last 5
| 25 Sep | vs Northern Ireland | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Jun | vs Bahrain | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Jun | vs Romania | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | @ Lithuania | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Israel | 2–2 | D |
Ukraine – last 4
| 25 Sep | @ Hungary | 1–0 | W |
| 31 May | @ Poland | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | vs Albania | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Sweden | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Georgia and Ukraine.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | -2 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
Armenia2
Montenegro3
Latvia0
Cyprus0
Belgium0
France1
Türkiye1
Italy4
Sweden3
Poland1
Romania2
Bosnia & Herzegovina4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Georgia vs Ukraine?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Georgia vs Ukraine?
On our numbers Georgia have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ukraine 46%.
How many goals will there be in Georgia vs Ukraine?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
When is Georgia vs Ukraine?
Georgia vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.