Value bet: Italy to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultItaly to win ✓45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.34
Türkiye vs Italy preview and prediction
The match
Türkiye host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 28 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Türkiye are 4th with 0 points from 4 games, while Italy sit 2nd on 7 points.
Form guide
Türkiye's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to France 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Italy's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to Belgium 0–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Italy arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.7 for Türkiye and 0.8 for Italy. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Türkiye 34%, draw 21%, Italy 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Italy to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Türkiye 1–1 Italy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Türkiye34%fair 2.92 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.30
Italy45%fair 2.23 · @2.50
1.50Expected goals
0.66Türkiye xG
0.84Italy xG
51%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
0–119%
1–015%
1–112%
0–28%
1–25%
From our goals model: Türkiye 0.7 – 0.8 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy to win✓
45%
2.23
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
29%
3.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.34
–
Form
Türkiye – last 6
LWLLWW
25 Sep
vs France
0–1
L
26 Jun
vs USA
3–2
W
20 Jun
vs Paraguay
0–1
L
14 Jun
@ Australia
0–2
L
6 Jun
@ Venezuela
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs FYR Macedonia
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Italy – last 4
LWWW
25 Sep
vs Belgium
0–2
L
7 Jun
@ Greece
1–0
W
3 Jun
@ Luxembourg
1–0
W
26 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Türkiye and Italy.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?
On our numbers Türkiye have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Italy 45%.
How many goals will there be in Türkiye vs Italy?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Türkiye 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Türkiye vs Italy?
Türkiye vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Montenegro3
Latvia0
Cyprus0
Northern Ireland0
Hungary0
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Poland1
Romania2
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