Belgium vs France prediction & analysis
France to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Belgium 0.4 – 1.1 France expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
France travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 26% for Belgium.
Belgium have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. France have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 1.5 goals (0.4 for Belgium, 1.1 for France). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (24%), 0–0 (22%), 0–2 (13%).
Our pick is France to win at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is better than our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | France to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT France / FT France ✗ | 29% | 3.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 24% | 4.20 | – |
Form
Belgium – last 6
| 25 Sep | @ Italy | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Jul | @ Spain | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Jul | @ USA | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Jul | vs Senegal | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Jun | @ New Zealand | 5–1 | W |
| 21 Jun | vs Iran | 0–0 | D |
France – last 6
| 25 Sep | @ Türkiye | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs England | 4–6 | L |
| 14 Jul | vs Spain | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Jul | vs Morocco | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Jul | @ Paraguay | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Jun | vs Sweden | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Belgium and France.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 4 | -9 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League hub
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Montenegro3
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Poland1
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Bosnia & Herzegovina4Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Belgium vs France?
Our pick is France to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Belgium vs France?
On our numbers Belgium have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 12% and France 62%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs France?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Belgium vs France?
Belgium vs France (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Roi Baudouin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.