Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Gimnasia Y Tiro to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimnasia Y Tiro to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceGimnasia Y Tiro or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓23% · fair 4.41
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview and prediction
The match
Gimnasia Y Tiro host Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte. Gimnasia Y Tiro are 8th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Atletico DE Rafaela sit 11th on 47 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Gimnasia Y Tiro's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Agropecuario 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat San Martin Tucuman 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 0.4 for Atletico DE Rafaela. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gimnasia Y Tiro 62%, draw 26%, Atletico DE Rafaela 12%.
Safer route: Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Gimnasia Y Tiro to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia Y Tiro62%fair 1.60 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.80
Atletico DE Rafaela12%fair 8.63 · @4.40
1.82Expected goals
1.40Gimnasia Y Tiro xG
0.42Atletico DE Rafaela xG
44%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
0–016%
2–016%
1–110%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.4 – 0.4 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia Y Tiro to win✓
62%
1.60
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia Y Tiro / FT Gimnasia Y Tiro✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
23%
4.41
–
Form
Gimnasia Y Tiro – last 6
LDWWLD
20 Sep
@ Agropecuario
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Club Atlético Güemes
3–1
W
29 Aug
vs Chacarita Juniors
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ San Martin S.J.
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ Central Norte
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
WLLWDD
19 Sep
vs San Martin Tucuman
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Gimnasia Jujuy
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Agropecuario
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Tristan Suarez
2–1
W
24 Aug
@ Club Atlético Güemes
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Defensores De Belgrano
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers Gimnasia Y Tiro have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico DE Rafaela 12%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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