Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmirante Brown to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceAlmirante Brown or draw ✗88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.37
Almirante Brown vs Acassuso preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Almirante Brown take on Acassuso on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento. Almirante Brown are 6th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Acassuso sit 17th on 35 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Almirante Brown's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Chaco For Ever 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Acassuso's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Atletico Mitre 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Almirante Brown arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Almirante Brown and 0.4 for Acassuso. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almirante Brown 65%, draw 23%, Acassuso 12%.
Safer route: Almirante Brown or draw (88%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Almirante Brown to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Almirante Brown 1–0 Acassuso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almirante Brown65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.20
Acassuso12%fair 8.32 · @5.50
1.84Expected goals
1.43Almirante Brown xG
0.40Acassuso xG
44%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–023%
2–016%
0–016%
1–19%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almirante Brown 1.4 – 0.4 Acassuso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almirante Brown to win✗
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Almirante Brown or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almirante Brown / FT Almirante Brown✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.37
–
Form
Almirante Brown – last 6
LDDWWL
20 Sep
@ Chaco For Ever
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Ferro Carril Oeste
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Central Norte
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Deportivo Madryn
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Defensores De Belgrano
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Tristan Suarez
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Acassuso – last 6
WLLDLL
19 Sep
vs Atletico Mitre
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ CA Estudiantes
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs All Boys
0–1
L
31 Aug
@ Los Andes
0–0
D
26 Aug
vs San Telmo
1–2
L
21 Aug
vs Godoy Cruz
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almirante Brown and Acassuso.
What is the prediction for Almirante Brown vs Acassuso?
Our pick is Almirante Brown to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Almirante Brown vs Acassuso?
On our numbers Almirante Brown have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Acassuso 12%.
How many goals will there be in Almirante Brown vs Acassuso?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almirante Brown vs Acassuso?
Our predicted score is Almirante Brown 1–0 Acassuso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Almirante Brown vs Acassuso?
Almirante Brown vs Acassuso (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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