Value bet: San Martin S.J. to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martin S.J. to win ✗42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.49
Patronato vs San Martin S.J. preview and prediction
The match
San Martin S.J. travel to face Patronato in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 27 September (20:00 WAT). Patronato are 16th with 38 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while San Martin S.J. sit 9th on 51 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Patronato's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Nueva Chicago 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martin S.J.'s last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Colegiales 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Martin S.J. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Patronato and 1.1 for San Martin S.J.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Patronato 32%, draw 26%, San Martin S.J. 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
Value angle: San Martin S.J. to win at 2.80 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.20, above our fair price of 1.95, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Patronato 1–1 San Martin S.J.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Patronato32%fair 3.09 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.62
San Martin S.J.42%fair 2.38 · @2.80
1.92Expected goals
0.87Patronato xG
1.05San Martin S.J. xG
51%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–015%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Patronato 0.9 – 1.1 San Martin S.J. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin S.J. to win✗
42%
2.38
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.49
–
Form
Patronato – last 6
DDDLWD
21 Sep
@ Nueva Chicago
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Temperley
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Almagro
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Atlanta
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
San Martin S.J. – last 6
WDLWWW
20 Sep
vs Colegiales
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Quilmes
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Midland
3–2
W
30 Aug
@ Atlanta
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and San Martin S.J..
What is the prediction for Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.20.
Who will win Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
On our numbers Patronato have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and San Martin S.J. 42%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
Our predicted score is Patronato 1–1 San Martin S.J., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
Patronato vs San Martin S.J. (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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