Value bet: Nueva Chicago to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlmagro to win ✗42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.41
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago preview and prediction
The match
Nueva Chicago travel to Estadio Tres de Febrero in the Primera Nacional on Sunday 27 September (19:30 WAT) to face Almagro. Almagro are 15th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Nueva Chicago sit 17th on 37 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Almagro's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Temperley 1–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nueva Chicago's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Patronato 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Nueva Chicago 1–2 Almagro.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Almagro and 0.9 for Nueva Chicago. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Almagro 42%, draw 25%, Nueva Chicago 33%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Nueva Chicago to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Almagro 1–0 Nueva Chicago. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almagro42%fair 2.39 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @2.70
Nueva Chicago33%fair 3.04 · @3.50
1.88Expected goals
1.02Almagro xG
0.86Nueva Chicago xG
49%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almagro 1.0 – 0.9 Nueva Chicago expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
On our numbers Almagro have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nueva Chicago 33%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Our predicted score is Almagro 1–0 Nueva Chicago, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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