Value bet: Avellino to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmpoli to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 9.55
Empoli vs Avellino preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Empoli take on Avellino on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Carlo Castellani. Empoli are 19th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Avellino sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Empoli's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Sampdoria 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Avellino's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Palermo 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Empoli and 1.2 for Avellino. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Empoli 42%, draw 24%, Avellino 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Avellino to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Empoli 1–1 Avellino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Empoli42%fair 2.40 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Avellino34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
2.57Expected goals
1.37Empoli xG
1.20Avellino xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Empoli 1.4 – 1.2 Avellino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Empoli to win✓
42%
2.40
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Empoli / FT Empoli✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
9.55
–
Form
Empoli – last 6
LWDLLD
6 Apr
@ Sampdoria
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Pescara
4–2
W
17 Mar
@ Spezia
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Catanzaro
2–3
L
4 Mar
@ Bari
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Avellino – last 6
LLWWLD
5 Apr
@ Palermo
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Sampdoria
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs Sudtirol
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Virtus Entella
2–1
W
3 Mar
@ Venezia
0–4
L
22 Feb
@ Reggiana
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Empoli and Avellino.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Empoli vs Avellino?
On our numbers Empoli have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Avellino 34%.
How many goals will there be in Empoli vs Avellino?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Avellino?
Our predicted score is Empoli 1–1 Avellino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Empoli vs Avellino?
Empoli vs Avellino (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone1
Spezia2
Venezia2
Monza2
Reggiana1
Bari2