Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Venezia to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVenezia to win ✗66% · @1.75
Double chanceVenezia or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.28
Spezia vs Venezia preview and prediction
The match
Spezia host Venezia in the Serie B on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Form guide
Spezia's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Catanzaro 2–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Venezia's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat Juve Stabia 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Venezia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.8 for Spezia and 2.1 for Venezia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spezia 13%, draw 22%, Venezia 66%.
Safer route: Venezia or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Venezia to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Venezia or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spezia 0–2 Venezia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spezia13%fair 7.81 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.85
Venezia66%fair 1.53 · @1.75
2.86Expected goals
0.81Spezia xG
2.06Venezia xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Spezia 0.8 – 2.1 Venezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venezia to win✗
66%
1.53
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Venezia or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.48
Half-time result
Venezia ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venezia / FT Venezia✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.28
–
Form
Spezia – last 6
LLDLDW
25 Apr
@ Catanzaro
2–4
L
6 Apr
@ Carrarese
1–3
L
17 Mar
vs Empoli
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Modena
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Padova
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Cesena
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Venezia – last 4
WWWW
6 Apr
vs Juve Stabia
3–1
W
17 Mar
vs Padova
3–1
W
3 Mar
vs Avellino
4–0
W
21 Feb
vs Pescara
3–2
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spezia and Venezia.
Our pick is Venezia or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Spezia vs Venezia?
On our numbers Spezia have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Venezia 66%.
How many goals will there be in Spezia vs Venezia?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spezia vs Venezia?
Our predicted score is Spezia 0–2 Venezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Spezia vs Venezia?
Spezia vs Venezia (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Palermo3
Catanzaro2
Juve Stabia0
Frosinone1
Sampdoria1
Sudtirol0
Carrarese0
Cesena0
Mantova3
Monza2
Modena2
Reggiana1
Bari2
Virtus Entella0
Empoli1
Avellino0