Value bet: Sudtirol to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSampdoria to win ✓45% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.42
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol preview and prediction
The match
Sampdoria host Sudtirol in the Serie B on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Sampdoria are 15th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sudtirol sit 12th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sampdoria's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Monza 0–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Sudtirol's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Cesena 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Sampdoria and 1.1 for Sudtirol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Sudtirol to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Sampdoria 1–1 Sudtirol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sampdoria45%fair 2.21 · @2.14
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Sudtirol33%fair 3.05 · @3.40
2.42Expected goals
1.34Sampdoria xG
1.08Sudtirol xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sampdoria 1.3 – 1.1 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sampdoria to win✓
45%
2.21
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sampdoria / FT Sampdoria✓
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.42
–
Form
Sampdoria – last 6
LWWLLD
17 Apr
vs Monza
0–3
L
6 Apr
vs Empoli
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Avellino
2–1
W
18 Mar
@ Carrarese
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ Frosinone
0–3
L
4 Mar
@ Juve Stabia
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sudtirol – last 6
DLLDWL
6 Apr
@ Cesena
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Frosinone
1–3
L
18 Mar
@ Avellino
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Pescara
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Reggiana
4–0
W
21 Feb
@ Palermo
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
On our numbers Sampdoria have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sudtirol 33%.
How many goals will there be in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our predicted score is Sampdoria 1–1 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone1
Spezia2
Venezia2
Monza2
Reggiana1
Bari2