Value bet: Monza to win @ 1.74 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonza to win ✗63% · @1.74
Double chanceMonza or draw ✗87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.09
Mantova vs Monza preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Mantova take on Monza on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Form guide
Mantova's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Virtus Entella 1–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monza's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Modena 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Mantova and 1.8 for Monza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mantova 13%, draw 25%, Monza 63%.
Safer route: Monza or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Monza to win at 1.74 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Mantova 0–1 Monza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mantova13%fair 7.89 · @4.60
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.60
Monza63%fair 1.60 · @1.74
2.57Expected goals
0.73Mantova xG
1.84Monza xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Mantova 0.7 – 1.8 Monza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monza to win✗
63%
1.60
1.74 ▲
Double chance
Monza or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Monza ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monza / FT Monza✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.09
–
Form
Mantova – last 6
WWWLDW
6 Apr
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
17 Mar
vs Cesena
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Juve Stabia
2–0
W
4 Mar
@ Palermo
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Carrarese
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Sampdoria
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monza – last 6
WWDDWW
24 Apr
vs Modena
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Sampdoria
3–0
W
6 Apr
@ Catanzaro
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Reggiana
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Cesena
3–1
W
27 Feb
vs Virtus Entella
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mantova and Monza.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Mantova vs Monza?
On our numbers Mantova have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Monza 63%.
How many goals will there be in Mantova vs Monza?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mantova vs Monza?
Our predicted score is Mantova 0–1 Monza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mantova vs Monza?
Mantova vs Monza (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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