Value bet: Virtus Entella to win @ 2.50 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVirtus Entella to win ✗45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.53
Bari vs Virtus Entella preview and prediction
The match
Virtus Entella travel to Stadio San Nicola in the Serie B on Friday 1 May (14:00 WAT) to face Bari.
Form guide
Bari's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Modena 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Virtus Entella's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Mantova 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Bari arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Bari and 1.3 for Virtus Entella. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bari 33%, draw 22%, Virtus Entella 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Virtus Entella to win at 2.50 – 45% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bari 1–1 Virtus Entella. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bari33%fair 3.02 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Virtus Entella45%fair 2.24 · @2.50
2.43Expected goals
1.10Bari xG
1.34Virtus Entella xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Bari 1.1 – 1.3 Virtus Entella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Virtus Entella to win✗
45%
2.24
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Virtus Entella / FT Virtus Entella✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.53
–
Form
Bari – last 6
WLLLWW
6 Apr
vs Modena
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Carrarese
0–3
L
18 Mar
@ Frosinone
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Pescara
0–4
L
4 Mar
vs Empoli
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Sampdoria
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Virtus Entella – last 6
LLLWLL
6 Apr
@ Mantova
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Pescara
0–3
L
15 Mar
vs Avellino
1–2
L
3 Mar
vs Modena
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Monza
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Catanzaro
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Virtus Entella.
What is the prediction for Bari vs Virtus Entella?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bari vs Virtus Entella?
On our numbers Bari have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Virtus Entella 45%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Virtus Entella?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Virtus Entella?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–1 Virtus Entella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Virtus Entella?
Bari vs Virtus Entella (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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