Value bet: Cheltenham to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCheltenham to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Cheltenham vs Crewe preview and prediction
The match
Cheltenham host Crewe in the League Two on Tuesday 17 March, with kick-off at 20:45 (WAT) at EV Charger Points Stadium. Cheltenham are 5th with 21 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Crewe sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cheltenham's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Fleetwood Town 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Cheltenham and 1.3 for Crewe. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cheltenham 40%, draw 26%, Crewe 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Cheltenham to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Cheltenham 1–1 Crewe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cheltenham40%fair 2.52 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.30
Crewe34%fair 2.90 · @2.48
2.82Expected goals
1.54Cheltenham xG
1.27Crewe xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cheltenham 1.5 – 1.3 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Cheltenham
Crewe
Attack vs League Two average
+13%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+26%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.74
1.29
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cheltenham to win✗
40%
2.52
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cheltenham / FT Cheltenham✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.84
–
Form
Cheltenham – last 5
DDDWD
10 Mar
@ Fleetwood Town
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Barrow
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ Harrogate Town
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Salford City
3–2
W
17 Feb
@ Bromley
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 2
WL
21 Feb
@ Swindon Town
2–1
W
17 Feb
vs Fleetwood Town
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cheltenham and Crewe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Crewe?
On our numbers Cheltenham have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Crewe 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cheltenham vs Crewe?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Cheltenham 1–1 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Cheltenham vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at EV Charger Points Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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