Value bet: Accrington ST to win @ 3.95 – our chance 29% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNotts County to win ✓47% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.40
Accrington ST vs Notts County preview and prediction
The match
The League Two sees Accrington ST take on Notts County on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at The Wham Stadium.
Form guide
Accrington ST's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Barnet 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Accrington ST and 1.4 for Notts County. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Accrington ST 29%, draw 25%, Notts County 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Accrington ST to win at 3.95 – 29% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Accrington ST 1–1 Notts County. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Accrington ST29%fair 3.50 · @3.95
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.25
Notts County47%fair 2.14 · @1.96
2.57Expected goals
1.18Accrington ST xG
1.39Notts County xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Accrington ST 1.2 – 1.4 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Accrington ST
Notts County
Attack vs League Two average
+11%
+36%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.41
1.45
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Notts County to win✓
47%
2.14
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Notts County / FT Notts County✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.40
–
Form
Accrington ST – last 3
LLW
24 Feb
vs Barnet
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Shrewsbury
0–2
L
17 Feb
@ Tranmere
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Notts County – last 2
WL
21 Feb
vs Tranmere
5–0
W
17 Feb
@ Shrewsbury
0–1
L
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Accrington ST and Notts County.
What is the prediction for Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Accrington ST vs Notts County?
On our numbers Accrington ST have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Notts County 47%.
How many goals will there be in Accrington ST vs Notts County?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Our predicted score is Accrington ST 1–1 Notts County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Accrington ST vs Notts County?
Accrington ST vs Notts County (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Wham Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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