Value bet: Sassuolo to win @ 2.72 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSassuolo to win ✗40% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.78
Sassuolo vs Lecce preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Sassuolo take on Lecce on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Lecce sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sassuolo's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Torino 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Lecce's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Pisa 2–1 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lecce arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Sassuolo and 1.1 for Lecce. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sassuolo 40%, draw 24%, Lecce 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Sassuolo to win at 2.72 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sassuolo 1–1 Lecce. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sassuolo40%fair 2.50 · @2.72
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Lecce36%fair 2.79 · @2.56
2.38Expected goals
1.23Sassuolo xG
1.15Lecce xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sassuolo 1.2 – 1.1 Lecce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sassuolo to win✗
40%
2.50
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sassuolo / FT Sassuolo✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.78
–
Form
Sassuolo – last 6
LWDWLL
8 May
@ Torino
1–2
L
3 May
vs AC Milan
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Como
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Genoa
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bologna
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lecce – last 5
WDLWW
1 May
@ Pisa
2–1
W
20 Apr
vs Fiorentina
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Atalanta
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Cremonese
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Cagliari
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sassuolo and Lecce.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lecce?
On our numbers Sassuolo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lecce 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Lecce?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sassuolo vs Lecce?
Our predicted score is Sassuolo 1–1 Lecce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sassuolo vs Lecce?
Sassuolo vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1