The Serie A sees AS Roma take on Lazio on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico. AS Roma are 3rd with 27 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Lazio sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AS Roma's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Fiorentina 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Lazio's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Inter 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.9 for AS Roma and 0.6 for Lazio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AS Roma 70%, draw 19%, Lazio 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AS Roma to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AS Roma 1–0 Lazio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Roma70%fair 1.44 · @1.53
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @3.95
Lazio11%fair 8.71 · @6.00
2.45Expected goals
1.88AS Roma xG
0.57Lazio xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
3–09%
1–19%
2–19%
0–09%
From our goals model: AS Roma 1.9 – 0.6 Lazio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
70%
1.44
1.53 ▲
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.17
–
Form
AS Roma – last 6
WWLDLD
4 May
vs Fiorentina
4–0
W
10 Apr
vs Pisa
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Inter
2–5
L
19 Mar
vs Bologna
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Como
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bologna
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lazio – last 6
LWDLWW
13 May
vs Inter
0–2
L
4 May
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
27 Apr
vs Udinese
3–3
D
13 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Bologna
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs AC Milan
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Lazio.
Our pick is AS Roma to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win AS Roma vs Lazio?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lazio 11%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Lazio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 1–0 Lazio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma vs Lazio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1