Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.89
Genoa vs AC Milan preview and prediction
The match
AC Milan travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in the Serie A on Sunday 17 May (11:00 WAT) to face Genoa. Genoa are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while AC Milan sit 4th on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Fiorentina 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
AC Milan's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Sassuolo 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Genoa and 1.7 for AC Milan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 15%, draw 25%, AC Milan 60%.
Safer route: AC Milan or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.90.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Genoa 0–1 AC Milan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa15%fair 6.87 · @4.60
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.70
AC Milan60%fair 1.66 · @1.72
2.49Expected goals
0.74Genoa xG
1.74AC Milan xG
48%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Genoa 0.7 – 1.7 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AC Milan to win✓
60%
1.66
1.72
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.89
–
Form
Genoa – last 6
DLWLLW
10 May
@ Fiorentina
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Como
0–2
L
12 Apr
vs Sassuolo
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Juventus
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Udinese
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Hellas Verona
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
AC Milan – last 6
LWLLWL
3 May
@ Sassuolo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Hellas Verona
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Lazio
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Cremonese
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Parma
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and AC Milan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Genoa have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 60%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our predicted score is Genoa 0–1 AC Milan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1