Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.68 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.68Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✗67% · @1.68
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✗89% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.45
Atalanta vs Bologna preview and prediction
The match
Bologna travel to New Balance Arena in the Serie A on Sunday 17 May (17:00 WAT) to face Atalanta. Atalanta are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Bologna sit 8th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atalanta's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Cagliari 2–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Bologna's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Napoli 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Atalanta and 0.7 for Bologna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atalanta 67%, draw 22%, Bologna 11%.
Safer route: Atalanta or draw (89%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atalanta to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.68, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atalanta 2–0 Bologna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta67%fair 1.49 · @1.68
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.00
Bologna11%fair 9.02 · @4.45
2.71Expected goals
2.00Atalanta xG
0.70Bologna xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–013%
2–19%
1–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atalanta 2.0 – 0.7 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✗
67%
1.49
1.68 ▲
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.50
Half-time result
Atalanta ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLD
27 Apr
@ Cagliari
2–3
L
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
4 Mar
@ Lazio
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bologna – last 6
WDLLWL
11 May
@ Napoli
3–2
W
3 May
vs Cagliari
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Aston Villa
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Lazio
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Bologna.
Our pick is Atalanta to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.68.
Who will win Atalanta vs Bologna?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bologna 11%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 2–0 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pisa0
Hellas Verona1