Value bet: New Caledonia to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Caledonia to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.28
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia preview and prediction
The match
New Caledonia travel to face Papua New Guinea in the Friendlies on Thursday 24 September (08:00 WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Papua New Guinea and 1.0 for New Caledonia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Papua New Guinea 37%, draw 24%, New Caledonia 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: New Caledonia to win at 3.10 – 39% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Papua New Guinea 1–1 New Caledonia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Papua New Guinea37%fair 2.70 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
New Caledonia39%fair 2.59 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
0.98Papua New Guinea xG
1.02New Caledonia xG
55%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Papua New Guinea 1.0 – 1.0 New Caledonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Caledonia to win✓
39%
2.59
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.28
–
Form
Papua New Guinea
No recent results on record.
New Caledonia – last 2
LL
21 Sep
vs Solomon Islands
0–2
L
27 Mar
vs Jamaica
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia.
What is the prediction for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
On our numbers Papua New Guinea have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New Caledonia 39%.
How many goals will there be in Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Our predicted score is Papua New Guinea 1–1 New Caledonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia?
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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