Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultJapan to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗30% · fair 3.35
Japan vs Uruguay preview and prediction
The match
Uruguay travel to Hitomebore Stadium Miyagi in the Friendlies on Thursday 24 September (11:05 WAT) to face Japan.
Form guide
Japan's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Brazil 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Uruguay's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Spain 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Japan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.8 for Japan and 0.2 for Uruguay. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Japan 61%, draw 20%, Uruguay 20%.
Both teams to score: no (59%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Japan to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Japan 1–0 Uruguay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Japan61%fair 1.65 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.30
Uruguay20%fair 5.07 · @4.00
1.00Expected goals
0.81Japan xG
0.19Uruguay xG
41%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
1–030%
2–012%
0–17%
1–16%
3–03%
From our goals model: Japan 0.8 – 0.2 Uruguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Japan to win✓
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.29
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
98%
1.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
30%
3.35
–
Form
Japan – last 6
LDWDWW
29 Jun
@ Brazil
1–2
L
26 Jun
vs Sweden
1–1
D
21 Jun
@ Tunisia
4–0
W
14 Jun
@ Netherlands
2–2
D
31 May
vs Iceland
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ England
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Uruguay – last 5
LDDDD
27 Jun
vs Spain
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Cape Verde Islands
2–2
D
15 Jun
@ Saudi Arabia
1–1
D
31 Mar
@ Algeria
0–0
D
27 Mar
@ England
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan and Uruguay.
Our pick is Japan to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Japan vs Uruguay?
On our numbers Japan have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Uruguay 20%.
How many goals will there be in Japan vs Uruguay?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Uruguay?
Our predicted score is Japan 1–0 Uruguay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Japan vs Uruguay?
Japan vs Uruguay (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 11:05 (West Africa Time) at Hitomebore Stadium Miyagi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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