Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAncona to win ✗64% · @1.45
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.84
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.87
Ancona vs Fossombrone preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia Serie D sees Ancona take on Fossombrone on Wednesday 7 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio del Conero.
Form guide
Ancona's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Sporting Trestina 2–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Fossombrone's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Atletico Ascoli 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Ancona and 0.8 for Fossombrone. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 46%.
Our pre-match pick was Ancona to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Ancona 1–0 Fossombrone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ancona64%fair 1.55 · @1.45
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.90
Fossombrone14%fair 7.16 · @5.75
2.73Expected goals
1.94Ancona xG
0.78Fossombrone xG
46%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.9 – 0.8 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✗
64%
1.55
1.45
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Ancona ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.87
–
Form
Ancona – last 6
WDDWLW
4 Oct
vs Sporting Trestina
2–0
W
27 Sep
@ Angelana
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs L'Aquila
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Maceratese
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Montecchio Gallo
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Notaresco
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fossombrone – last 6
WDLWLW
4 Oct
@ Atletico Ascoli
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Vigor Senigallia
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Lanciano FC
2–4
L
16 Sep
@ Sporting Trestina
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs L'Aquila
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Fossombrone.
Our pick is Ancona to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Ancona vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Ancona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fossombrone 14%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Fossombrone?
Ancona vs Fossombrone (Coppa Italia Serie D) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Lentigione1
Piacenza3
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Saluzzo2
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