Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Arsenal to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBayern München to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.35
Bayern München vs Arsenal preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal travel to Allianz Arena in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October (20:00 WAT) to face Bayern München. Bayern München are 13th with 8 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Arsenal sit 3rd on 10 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bayern München's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat RB Leipzig 6–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.2 goals a game.
Arsenal's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Nottingham Forest 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.0 for Bayern München and 1.8 for Arsenal. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 68%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bayern München 43%, draw 21%, Arsenal 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Arsenal to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bayern München43%fair 2.34 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.70
Arsenal36%fair 2.80 · @3.10
3.75Expected goals
1.96Bayern München xG
1.79Arsenal xG
68%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–18%
2–18%
1–27%
2–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Bayern München 2.0 – 1.8 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✗
43%
2.34
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.48
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Bayern München ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✗
26%
3.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.35
–
Form
Bayern München – last 6
WDDWWW
17 Oct
vs RB Leipzig
6–1
W
13 Oct
@ Viking
3–3
D
10 Oct
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Union Berlin
7–0
W
13 Sep
@ SV Elversberg
2–1
W
10 Sep
vs BodoGlimt
5–0
W
4.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
WWWLWW
18 Oct
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
13 Oct
vs Lille
3–0
W
10 Oct
vs Leeds
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Brighton
0–3
L
15 Sep
@ Ipswich
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Sunderland
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bayern München and Arsenal.
What is the prediction for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Bayern München vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Bayern München have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Arsenal 36%.
How many goals will there be in Bayern München vs Arsenal?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Bayern München vs Arsenal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
