Value bet: Valenzana to win @ 2.55 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultValenzana to win ✗44% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.99
Celle Varazze vs Valenzana preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Celle Varazze take on Valenzana on Sunday 1 November, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Celle Varazze are 18th with 4 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Valenzana sit 17th on 6 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Celle Varazze's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Imperia 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Valenzana's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Biellese 3–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Valenzana arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Celle Varazze and 1.4 for Valenzana. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celle Varazze 34%, draw 23%, Valenzana 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.88.
Value angle: Valenzana to win at 2.55 – 44% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Celle Varazze 1–1 Valenzana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celle Varazze34%fair 2.98 · @2.65
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.05
Valenzana44%fair 2.27 · @2.55
2.51Expected goals
1.14Celle Varazze xG
1.36Valenzana xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Celle Varazze 1.1 – 1.4 Valenzana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valenzana to win✗
44%
2.27
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.88
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valenzana / FT Valenzana✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.99
–
Form
Celle Varazze – last 6
LLDLLL
25 Oct
@ Imperia
0–2
L
18 Oct
vs Gozzano
1–2
L
11 Oct
@ Sestri Levante
1–1
D
7 Oct
@ Bra
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Chisola
0–4
L
20 Sep
vs Ligorna
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Valenzana – last 6
WLLDWW
28 Oct
vs Biellese
3–0
W
25 Oct
vs Ligorna
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Biellese
1–4
L
11 Oct
vs Sanremese
1–1
D
7 Oct
vs Saluzzo
3–2
W
4 Oct
@ Fezzanese
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celle Varazze and Valenzana.
What is the prediction for Celle Varazze vs Valenzana?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celle Varazze vs Valenzana?
On our numbers Celle Varazze have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Valenzana 44%.
How many goals will there be in Celle Varazze vs Valenzana?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celle Varazze vs Valenzana?
Our predicted score is Celle Varazze 1–1 Valenzana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Celle Varazze vs Valenzana?
Celle Varazze vs Valenzana (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
