Serie D Girone A · ItalyLigorna vs Sestri Levante prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ligorna 1.7 – 0.9 Sestri Levante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ligorna hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 19% for Sestri Levante.
Ligorna have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Sestri Levante have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Ligorna come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.7 for Ligorna, 0.9 for Sestri Levante). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.37.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ligorna to win ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.69 |
| Double chance | Ligorna or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.81 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ligorna / FT Ligorna ✗ | 36% | 2.81 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.58 | – |
Form
Ligorna – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Valenzana | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Bra | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Gozzano | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Saluzzo | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Chisola | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Celle Varazze | 2–0 | W |
Sestri Levante – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Saluzzo | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Sanremese | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Celle Varazze | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | vs Pistoiese | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | @ Borgosesia | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Biellese | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ligorna and Sestri Levante.
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?
On our numbers Ligorna have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sestri Levante 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Ligorna vs Sestri Levante?
Ligorna vs Sestri Levante (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.