Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.88
Derthona vs Alessandria preview and prediction
The match
Derthona host Alessandria in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Derthona are 4th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Alessandria sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Derthona's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Saluzzo 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alessandria's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Imperia 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Derthona and 1.1 for Alessandria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 47%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Derthona 1–1 Alessandria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derthona41%fair 2.41 · @2.45
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Alessandria34%fair 2.94 · @2.70
2.45Expected goals
1.30Derthona xG
1.15Alessandria xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Derthona 1.3 – 1.1 Alessandria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derthona to win✗
41%
2.41
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derthona / FT Derthona✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.88
–
Form
Derthona – last 6
DWWDWD
27 Sep
@ Saluzzo
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Millesimo
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Ligorna
3–2
W
13 Sep
vs Imperia
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Celle Varazze
1–0
W
10 May
vs Gozzano
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alessandria – last 5
WWLWW
30 Sep
vs Imperia
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs Asti
2–0
W
16 Sep
@ Millesimo
1–4
L
13 Sep
vs Sestri Levante
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Valenzana
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derthona and Alessandria.
What is the prediction for Derthona vs Alessandria?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Derthona vs Alessandria?
On our numbers Derthona have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alessandria 34%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Alessandria?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derthona vs Alessandria?
Our predicted score is Derthona 1–1 Alessandria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Derthona vs Alessandria?
Derthona vs Alessandria (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
