Value bet: Sestri Levante to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBorgosesia to win ✗43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.96
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.84
Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Borgosesia take on Sestri Levante on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Borgosesia are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sestri Levante sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Borgosesia's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Chisola 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sestri Levante's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Biellese 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Borgosesia and 1.1 for Sestri Levante. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Sestri Levante to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Borgosesia 1–1 Sestri Levante. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Borgosesia43%fair 2.30 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Sestri Levante34%fair 2.90 · @3.10
2.46Expected goals
1.32Borgosesia xG
1.14Sestri Levante xG
49%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Borgosesia 1.3 – 1.1 Sestri Levante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Borgosesia to win✗
43%
2.30
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Borgosesia / FT Borgosesia✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.84
–
Form
Borgosesia – last 5
DWDDL
30 Sep
@ Chisola
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Valenzana
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Bra
1–1
D
16 Sep
@ Gozzano
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Saluzzo
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Sestri Levante – last 6
LDLLWW
27 Sep
vs Biellese
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Lascaris
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Fezzanese
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Alessandria
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Asti
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ Sampdoria U20
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Borgosesia and Sestri Levante.
What is the prediction for Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante?
On our numbers Borgosesia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sestri Levante 34%.
How many goals will there be in Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante?
Our predicted score is Borgosesia 1–1 Sestri Levante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante?
Borgosesia vs Sestri Levante (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
