Serie D Girone A · ItalyFezzanese vs Valenzana prediction & analysis
Fezzanese or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Fezzanese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Fezzanese 1.8 – 0.8 Valenzana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Fezzanese are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 17% for Valenzana.
Fezzanese have taken 7 points from their last 5 matches (2W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Valenzana have 1 points from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. Fezzanese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for Fezzanese, 0.8 for Valenzana). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Fezzanese or draw at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.20. For a bigger price, Fezzanese to win at 1.85 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fezzanese to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Fezzanese or draw ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Half-time result | Fezzanese ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Fezzanese / FT Fezzanese ✗ | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.07 | – |
Form
Fezzanese – last 5
| 27 Sep | @ Imperia | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Gozzano | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Sestri Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Chisola | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Bra | 1–1 | D |
Valenzana – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Borgosesia | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Asti | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Lascaris | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Millesimo | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Alessandria | 1–2 | L |
| 3 May | vs Chisola | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fezzanese and Valenzana.
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
Our pick is Fezzanese or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
On our numbers Fezzanese have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Valenzana 17%.
How many goals will there be in Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
Fezzanese vs Valenzana (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.