Serie D Girone A · ItalyAsti vs Millesimo prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Millesimo to win @ 3.22 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Asti 1.3 – 1.2 Millesimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Asti and Millesimo on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Asti have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Millesimo have 9 points from their last 5 (3W 0D 2L), averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Asti, 1.2 for Millesimo). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Millesimo to win at 3.22 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Asti to win ✓ | 40% | 2.52 | 2.19 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.87 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Asti / FT Asti ✗ | 22% | 4.63 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.59 | – |
Form
Asti – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Alessandria | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Valenzana | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ Imperia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Gozzano | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Sestri Levante | 0–2 | L |
| 10 May | @ Cairese | 1–0 | W |
Millesimo – last 5
| 27 Sep | vs Lascaris | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Derthona | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Alessandria | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Valenzana | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Imperia | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Asti and Millesimo.
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Asti vs Millesimo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Asti vs Millesimo?
On our numbers Asti have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Millesimo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Asti vs Millesimo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Asti vs Millesimo?
Asti vs Millesimo (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.