FAW Championship · Wales · Stebonheath Parkllanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.32 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: llanelli AFC 1.1 – 2.5 Pontardawe Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pontardawe Town travel as clear favourites – 66% to win, against 15% for llanelli AFC.
llanelli AFC have taken 0 points from their last 6 matches (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.8 per game. Pontardawe Town have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. Pontardawe Town come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (1.1 for llanelli AFC, 2.5 for Pontardawe Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–3 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.32 is close to our fair price of 1.45.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pontardawe Town to win ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.23 |
| Double chance | Pontardawe Town or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.64 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| Half-time result | Pontardawe Town ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pontardawe Town / FT Pontardawe Town ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.60 | – |
Form
llanelli AFC – last 6
| 30 Oct | @ Pontypridd Town | 0–4 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Afan Lido | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Oct | @ Caerau (Ely) | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | @ Ynyshir Albions | 2–6 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs Baglan Dragons | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Llantwit Major | 0–2 | L |
Pontardawe Town – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Carmarthen Town | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Llangennech | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Llantwit Major | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | @ Trethomas Bluebirds | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Treowen Stars | 6–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Swansea University | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between llanelli AFC and Pontardawe Town.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 11 | +19 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Treowen Stars | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
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What is the prediction for llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
On our numbers llanelli AFC have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Pontardawe Town 66%.
How many goals will there be in llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town?
llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stebonheath Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.