Trethomas Bluebirds vs Afan Lido prediction & analysis

Very little separates Trethomas Bluebirds and Afan Lido on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Trethomas Bluebirds have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 per game. Afan Lido have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. Afan Lido come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.4 goals (1.7 for Trethomas Bluebirds, 1.6 for Afan Lido). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Trethomas Bluebirds have won 0, Afan Lido have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.57.