Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) preview and prediction
The match
Caerau (Ely) travel to face Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship on Friday 28 August (19:30 WAT). Baglan Dragons are 5th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Caerau (Ely) sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Baglan Dragons's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat Newport City 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Caerau (Ely)'s last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Swansea University 1–5 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 0.9 for Baglan Dragons and 2.4 for Caerau (Ely). That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Caerau (Ely) to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Baglan Dragons 0–2 Caerau (Ely). Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Baglan Dragons10%fair 10.12 · @5.00
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.75
Caerau (Ely)69%fair 1.46 · @1.53
3.25Expected goals
0.87Baglan Dragons xG
2.38Caerau (Ely) xG
58%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
1–210%
0–19%
0–39%
1–18%
1–38%
From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 0.9 – 2.4 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
69%
1.46
1.53 ▲
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
90%
1.11
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.13
–
Form
Baglan Dragons – last 6
WWLDLD
21 Aug
@ Newport City
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Llantwit Major
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Swansea University
0–3
L
31 Jul
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–2
L
24 Mar
vs Cwmbran Celtic
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
LWDLDL
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Carmarthen Town
3–4
L
25 Jul
vs Barnstaple Town
4–4
D
21 Jul
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baglan Dragons and Caerau (Ely).
What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Caerau (Ely) 69%.
How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our predicted score is Baglan Dragons 0–2 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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