Value bet: Alcoyano to win @ 3.70 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUcam Murcia to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano preview and prediction
The match
Alcoyano travel to Estadio de La Condomina in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 11 October (16:00 WAT) to face Ucam Murcia. Ucam Murcia are 2nd with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Alcoyano sit 7th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ucam Murcia's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Elche II 5–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Alcoyano's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Mallorca II 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alcoyano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.6 for Ucam Murcia and 1.2 for Alcoyano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Alcoyano to win at 3.70 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ucam Murcia 1–1 Alcoyano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ucam Murcia46%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.88
Alcoyano31%fair 3.24 · @3.70
2.80Expected goals
1.56Ucam Murcia xG
1.24Alcoyano xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ucam Murcia 1.6 – 1.2 Alcoyano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ucam Murcia to win✓
46%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ucam Murcia / FT Ucam Murcia✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.53
–
Form
Ucam Murcia – last 6
WLWWLL
3 Oct
@ Elche II
5–1
W
27 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Atlético Baleares
4–1
W
13 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Castellonense
1–2
L
3 May
@ Xerez
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alcoyano – last 6
WWWLDW
4 Oct
@ Mallorca II
1–0
W
27 Sep
vs Deportiva Minera
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Poblense
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Castellón II
0–3
L
5 Sep
vs Cieza
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Hércules
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ucam Murcia and Alcoyano.
What is the prediction for Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
On our numbers Ucam Murcia have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alcoyano 31%.
How many goals will there be in Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Our predicted score is Ucam Murcia 1–1 Alcoyano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano?
Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de La Condomina.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
