Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: La Nucía to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Nucía to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceLa Nucía or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.79
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva preview and prediction
The match
Lorca Deportiva travel to face La Nucía in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 11 October (17:00 WAT). La Nucía are 5th with 15 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Lorca Deportiva sit 8th on 13 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
La Nucía's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Deportiva Minera 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lorca Deportiva's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Castellón II 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
La Nucía arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for La Nucía and 0.5 for Lorca Deportiva. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: La Nucía 60%, draw 25%, Lorca Deportiva 14%.
Safer route: La Nucía or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.67.
Value angle: La Nucía to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was La Nucía or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: La Nucía 1–0 Lorca Deportiva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
La Nucía60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Lorca Deportiva14%fair 6.98 · @3.90
1.90Expected goals
1.40La Nucía xG
0.50Lorca Deportiva xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–015%
2–015%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: La Nucía 1.4 – 0.5 Lorca Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Nucía to win✗
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Double chance
La Nucía or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Nucía / FT La Nucía✗
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.79
–
Form
La Nucía – last 6
LWWWWL
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Yeclano
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Poblense
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Alcoyano
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
LWDLDL
3 Oct
@ Castellón II
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Orihuela
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Elche II
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Águilas
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between La Nucía and Lorca Deportiva.
What is the prediction for La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
Our pick is La Nucía or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
On our numbers La Nucía have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lorca Deportiva 14%.
How many goals will there be in La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
Our predicted score is La Nucía 1–0 Lorca Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva?
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
