Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón II to win ✗41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Poblense vs Castellón II preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 3 sees Poblense take on Castellón II on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Poblense are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Castellón II sit 3rd on 18 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Poblense's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Atlético Baleares 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Castellón II's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Lorca Deportiva 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Castellón II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Poblense and 1.4 for Castellón II. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Poblense 34%, draw 24%, Castellón II 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Castellón II to win at 2.80 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Poblense 1–1 Castellón II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Poblense34%fair 2.93 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.00
Castellón II41%fair 2.41 · @2.80
2.70Expected goals
1.27Poblense xG
1.43Castellón II xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Poblense 1.3 – 1.4 Castellón II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón II to win✗
41%
2.41
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón II / FT Castellón II✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Form
Poblense – last 6
LWLLLW
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Alcoyano
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ La Nucía
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Atlético Baleares
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Castellón II – last 6
WWWWLL
3 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Orihuela
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Valencia II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Alcoyano
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poblense and Castellón II.
What is the prediction for Poblense vs Castellón II?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Poblense vs Castellón II?
On our numbers Poblense have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Castellón II 41%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Castellón II?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Castellón II?
Our predicted score is Poblense 1–1 Castellón II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Poblense vs Castellón II?
Poblense vs Castellón II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
