Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Lorca Deportiva to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceLorca Deportiva or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓24% · fair 4.12
Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense preview and prediction
The match
Lorca Deportiva host Castellonense in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Lorca Deportiva are 8th with 13 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Castellonense sit 4th on 16 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lorca Deportiva's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Intercity 0–0 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Castellonense's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Cieza 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Castellonense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for Lorca Deportiva and 0.4 for Castellonense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Lorca Deportiva or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lorca Deportiva to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.61, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Castellonense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorca Deportiva62%fair 1.61 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.10
Castellonense13%fair 7.53 · @4.80
1.67Expected goals
1.29Lorca Deportiva xG
0.38Castellonense xG
43%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–019%
2–016%
1–19%
0–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 0.4 Castellonense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorca Deportiva to win✓
62%
1.61
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Lorca Deportiva or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva✗
35%
2.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
24%
4.12
–
Form
Lorca Deportiva – last 6
DLDLLD
20 Sep
vs Intercity
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Orihuela
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Elche II
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Águilas
0–1
L
3 May
@ Deportiva Minera
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Yeclano
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Castellonense – last 6
WWWDWW
19 Sep
vs Cieza
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Poblense
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Ucam Murcia
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Saguntino
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Crevillente
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Soneja
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Castellonense.
What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Our pick is Lorca Deportiva to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Castellonense 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Castellonense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense?
Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
