Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Crewe to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCrewe to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceCrewe or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.56
Crewe vs Rochdale preview and prediction
The match
Crewe host Rochdale in the League Two on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Alexandra Stadium. Crewe are 4th with 22 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Rochdale sit 20th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Crewe's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Swindon Town 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Rochdale's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Tranmere 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Crewe and 0.6 for Rochdale. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Crewe 60%, draw 21%, Rochdale 19%.
Safer route: Crewe or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Crewe to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Crewe or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Crewe 1–0 Rochdale. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Crewe60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
Rochdale19%fair 5.30 · @3.90
2.10Expected goals
1.47Crewe xG
0.63Rochdale xG
53%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Crewe 1.5 – 0.6 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Crewe to win✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Crewe or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Crewe / FT Crewe✓
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.56
–
Form
Crewe – last 6
WDWDWD
10 Oct
@ Swindon Town
1–0
W
6 Oct
@ Blackpool
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Bristol Rovers
3–1
W
26 Sep
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
22 Sep
vs Aston Villa U21
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Shrewsbury
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 6
DLWWDW
10 Oct
@ Tranmere
1–1
D
6 Oct
@ Huddersfield
0–5
L
3 Oct
vs Swindon Town
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Fleetwood Town
2–1
W
22 Sep
vs Liverpool U21
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Crewe and Rochdale.
Our pick is Crewe or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Crewe vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Crewe have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rochdale 19%.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs Rochdale?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Crewe vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Crewe 1–0 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Crewe vs Rochdale?
Crewe vs Rochdale (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
