League Two · England · Blundell ParkGrimsby vs Northampton prediction & analysis
Grimsby to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Grimsby 1.3 – 0.6 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Grimsby hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 22% for Northampton.
Grimsby have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Northampton have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (1.3 for Grimsby, 0.6 for Northampton). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 0–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%).
Our pick is Grimsby to win at a 58% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Grimsby to win ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Grimsby / FT Grimsby ✗ | 32% | 3.16 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.26 | – |
Form
Grimsby – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Burton Albion | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Newport County | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | @ Notts County | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 2–0 | W |
Northampton – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ York | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | @ Cambridge United | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rotherham | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Shrewsbury | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Newport County | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grimsby and Northampton.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Grimsby vs Northampton?
Our pick is Grimsby to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Grimsby vs Northampton?
On our numbers Grimsby have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Northampton 22%.
How many goals will there be in Grimsby vs Northampton?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Grimsby vs Northampton?
Grimsby vs Northampton (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Blundell Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.