Value bet: Shrewsbury to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRochdale to win ✓45% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Rochdale vs Shrewsbury preview and prediction
The match
The League Two sees Rochdale take on Shrewsbury on Tuesday 1 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Spotland Stadium. Rochdale are 20th with 15 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Shrewsbury sit 15th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Rochdale's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Colchester 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Shrewsbury's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Salford City 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Shrewsbury arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Rochdale and 1.1 for Shrewsbury. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Shrewsbury to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Rochdale 1–1 Shrewsbury. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rochdale45%fair 2.21 · @2.12
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Shrewsbury34%fair 2.95 · @3.25
2.49Expected goals
1.36Rochdale xG
1.12Shrewsbury xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Rochdale 1.4 – 1.1 Shrewsbury expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rochdale to win✓
45%
2.21
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rochdale / FT Rochdale✓
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.83
–
Form
Rochdale – last 6
LLLLDL
29 Aug
@ Colchester
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Crawley Town
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Newport County
0–3
L
8 Aug
@ Bradford
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Tranmere
2–2
D
28 Jul
vs FC Halifax Town
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Shrewsbury – last 6
WLLLDD
29 Aug
vs Salford City
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Fleetwood Town
0–4
L
22 Aug
vs Barnet
1–3
L
15 Aug
@ Tranmere
0–2
L
8 Aug
@ Salford City
1–1
D
28 Jul
@ Hereford
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rochdale and Shrewsbury.
What is the prediction for Rochdale vs Shrewsbury?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Rochdale vs Shrewsbury?
On our numbers Rochdale have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Shrewsbury 34%.
How many goals will there be in Rochdale vs Shrewsbury?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rochdale vs Shrewsbury?
Our predicted score is Rochdale 1–1 Shrewsbury, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rochdale vs Shrewsbury?
Rochdale vs Shrewsbury (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Spotland Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
