League Two · England · Sixfields StadiumNorthampton vs Crawley Town prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Value bet: Northampton to win @ 1.73 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Northampton 1.6 – 0.5 Crawley Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Northampton are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 14% for Crawley Town.
Northampton have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Crawley Town have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Northampton, 0.5 for Crawley Town). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is better than our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Northampton to win at 1.73 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Northampton to win ✗ | 66% | 1.50 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Northampton or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Northampton / FT Northampton ✗ | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.20 | – |
Form
Northampton – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Gillingham | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Crewe | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Aug | vs Brighton U21 | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Swindon Town | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Leicester | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Solihull Moors | 4–2 | W |
Crawley Town – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Bristol Rovers | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Rochdale | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Crewe | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Watford | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | @ York | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | vs Reading | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Northampton and Crawley Town.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
On our numbers Northampton have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Crawley Town 14%.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton vs Crawley Town (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.