League Two · England · SMH Group StadiumChesterfield vs Gillingham prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chesterfield 1.5 – 0.6 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Chesterfield are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 16% for Gillingham.
Chesterfield have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Gillingham have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Gillingham come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.5 for Chesterfield, 0.6 for Gillingham). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Chesterfield have won 1, Gillingham have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.30, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chesterfield to win ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.54 |
| Double chance | Chesterfield or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Chesterfield / FT Chesterfield ✗ | 36% | 2.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.61 | – |
Form
Chesterfield – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Rotherham | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Salford City | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Fleetwood Town | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Fleetwood Town | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Jul | @ Scunthorpe | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Jul | @ FC Halifax Town | 2–3 | L |
Gillingham – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Fleetwood Town | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Walsall | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Luton | 0–3 | L |
| 31 Jul | @ Ebbsfleet United | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Jul | vs Millwall | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 17 Feb 2026 | Chesterfield v Gillingham | 1–0 |
League Two table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
On our numbers Chesterfield have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gillingham 16%.
How many goals will there be in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at SMH Group Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.