Value bet: Crewe to win @ 3.15 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPort Vale to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Port Vale vs Crewe preview and prediction
The match
Crewe travel to Vale Park in the League Two on Saturday 29 August (12:30 WAT) to face Port Vale. Port Vale are 19th with 15 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Crewe sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Port Vale's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Tranmere 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Crewe's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Barnsley 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Port Vale and 1.0 for Crewe. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Port Vale 42%, draw 24%, Crewe 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Crewe to win at 3.15 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Port Vale 1–0 Crewe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Port Vale42%fair 2.39 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Crewe34%fair 2.90 · @3.15
2.07Expected goals
1.11Port Vale xG
0.97Crewe xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Port Vale 1.1 – 1.0 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Port Vale to win✗
42%
2.39
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Port Vale / FT Port Vale✗
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
Port Vale – last 6
DLLWWW
22 Aug
vs Tranmere
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Oldham
0–2
L
7 Aug
@ Wolves
0–3
L
1 Aug
@ Blackpool
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Wigan
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 6
LWWWDL
25 Aug
@ Barnsley
2–3
L
22 Aug
vs Northampton
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Crawley Town
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Accrington ST
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Chester
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Port Vale and Crewe.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Port Vale vs Crewe?
On our numbers Port Vale have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Crewe 34%.
How many goals will there be in Port Vale vs Crewe?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Port Vale vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Port Vale 1–0 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Port Vale vs Crewe?
Port Vale vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Vale Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
