Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✗66% · @1.44
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.57
Southampton vs Bolton preview and prediction
The match
Southampton host Bolton in the Championship on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Bolton sit 18th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Norwich 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Bolton's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Wolves 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Southampton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Southampton and 0.9 for Bolton. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Southampton to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Southampton 2–0 Bolton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton66%fair 1.52 · @1.44
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @4.60
Bolton13%fair 7.99 · @5.50
3.20Expected goals
2.26Southampton xG
0.94Bolton xG
60%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.3 – 0.9 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✗
66%
1.52
1.44
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.57
–
Form
Southampton – last 6
WWLWWD
14 Oct
@ Norwich
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Portsmouth
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Bristol City
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Swansea
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Lincoln
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
WLWWLL
13 Oct
@ Wolves
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Stoke City
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Norwich
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Cardiff
1–0
W
8 Sep
vs West Ham
2–3
L
5 Sep
@ Millwall
0–4
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Bolton.
Our pick is Southampton to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
On our numbers Southampton have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bolton 13%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Bolton?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Bolton?
Southampton vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
