Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: QPR to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.35
Birmingham vs QPR preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Birmingham take on QPR on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Birmingham are 1st with 29 points from 15 games (top of the table), while QPR sit 8th on 24 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Birmingham's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Preston 4–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
QPR's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Derby 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Birmingham arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 March 2026, finished Birmingham 1–0 QPR.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Birmingham and 1.2 for QPR. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Birmingham 46%, draw 21%, QPR 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Value angle: QPR to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Birmingham 1–1 QPR. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham46%fair 2.17 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.40
QPR33%fair 3.03 · @3.50
2.60Expected goals
1.44Birmingham xG
1.16QPR xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.4 – 1.2 QPR expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and QPR 33%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs QPR?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs QPR?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 QPR, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs QPR?
Birmingham vs QPR (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
