Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultStoke City to win ✓45% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.01
Derby vs Stoke City preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Derby take on Stoke City on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Stoke City sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to QPR 1–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Stoke City's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Middlesbrough 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Stoke City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 April 2026, finished Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.4 for Derby and 1.7 for Stoke City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 33%, draw 21%, Stoke City 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 Stoke City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby33%fair 2.99 · @2.80
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.30
Stoke City45%fair 2.20 · @2.30
3.05Expected goals
1.39Derby xG
1.66Stoke City xG
58%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Derby 1.4 – 1.7 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Derby have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Stoke City 45%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Stoke City?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Stoke City?
Derby vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
