Derby host Birmingham in the Championship on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Birmingham sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to West Brom 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Birmingham's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Norwich 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.1 for Derby and 1.6 for Birmingham. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 28%, draw 22%, Birmingham 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 Birmingham. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby28%fair 3.53 · @3.60
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Birmingham49%fair 2.03 · @2.05
2.67Expected goals
1.11Derby xG
1.56Birmingham xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Derby 1.1 – 1.6 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
49%
2.03
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.24
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LLWLDL
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 6
LDDWLD
9 Sep
@ Norwich
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Wolves
2–2
D
1 Sep
vs Southampton
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Wrexham
2–1
W
25 Aug
vs Brentford
1–6
L
22 Aug
vs Bristol City
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Birmingham.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derby vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Derby have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Birmingham 49%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Birmingham?
Derby vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
