Championship · England · Swansea.com StadiumSwansea vs Burnley prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Value bet: Burnley to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Swansea 1.5 – 1.2 Burnley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Swansea hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Burnley.
Swansea have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 per game. Burnley have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. Swansea come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 for Swansea, 1.2 for Burnley). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.66. For a bigger price, Burnley to win at 3.40 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Swansea to win ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Swansea / FT Swansea ✓ | 25% | 3.94 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.88 | – |
Form
Swansea – last 6
| 8 Sep | @ Southampton | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Wrexham | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Watford | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Derby | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Sheffield Utd | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Stoke City | 2–1 | W |
Burnley – last 6
| 8 Sep | @ Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Bristol City | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Middlesbrough | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Norwich | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Aug | @ Bradford | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | @ West Brom | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swansea and Burnley.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Swansea vs Burnley?
On our numbers Swansea have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burnley 33%.
How many goals will there be in Swansea vs Burnley?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea vs Burnley (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Swansea.com Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.