Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWest Ham to win ✓68% · @1.36
Double chanceWest Ham or draw ✓88% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.93
West Ham vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees West Ham take on Derby on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at London Stadium. West Ham are 9th with 23 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
West Ham's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Wolves 4–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Derby's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Portsmouth 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
West Ham arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for West Ham and 0.9 for Derby. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: West Ham 68%, draw 21%, Derby 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: West Ham 2–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
West Ham68%fair 1.48 · @1.36
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @4.75
Derby12%fair 8.51 · @8.25
3.13Expected goals
2.26West Ham xG
0.87Derby xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: West Ham 2.3 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
West Ham to win✓
68%
1.48
1.36
Double chance
West Ham or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.42
Half-time result
West Ham ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT West Ham / FT West Ham✓
46%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.93
–
Form
West Ham – last 6
WDWLDW
1 Sep
vs Wolves
4–2
W
29 Aug
@ Watford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Southampton
4–1
W
22 Aug
vs Charlton
1–2
L
16 Aug
@ Burnley
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Portsmouth
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
WLDLLD
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between West Ham and Derby.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win West Ham vs Derby?
On our numbers West Ham have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derby 12%.
How many goals will there be in West Ham vs Derby?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for West Ham vs Derby?
Our predicted score is West Ham 2–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is West Ham vs Derby?
West Ham vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at London Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
