Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Bolton to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMillwall to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.95
Millwall vs Bolton preview and prediction
The match
Millwall host Bolton in the Championship on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at The Den. Millwall are 16th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Bolton sit 18th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Millwall's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Wrexham 0–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bolton's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Sheffield Utd 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Millwall arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Millwall and 1.3 for Bolton. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Millwall 45%, draw 22%, Bolton 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Bolton to win at 3.70 – 32% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Millwall 1–1 Bolton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Millwall45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.20
Bolton32%fair 3.08 · @3.70
2.88Expected goals
1.59Millwall xG
1.29Bolton xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.6 – 1.3 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✓
45%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millwall / FT Millwall✓
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.95
–
Form
Millwall – last 6
LLWWWD
2 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Southampton
1–5
L
25 Aug
@ Cambridge United
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Norwich
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Bristol City
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ QPR
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
LLDWLW
1 Sep
@ Sheffield Utd
2–3
L
29 Aug
vs Lincoln
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ QPR
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Preston
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Sheffield Wednesday
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs NAC Breda
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Bolton.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Millwall vs Bolton?
On our numbers Millwall have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bolton 32%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Bolton?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Bolton?
Millwall vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
